2014--a political year for the Philippines
Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.
A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.
In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.
There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.
Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.
Epalism is one thing that most people hate.
One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.
Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.
Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.
Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.
People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.
Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.
How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.
Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.
Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?
Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.
How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.
Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.
The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.
Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.
His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.
(expect a second part of this analysis..)