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Wednesday, May 4, 2016

May 9 election cheaters have achieved their objective---create a Mar win

Some analysts are puzzled over this phenomenon called "Duterte." Many people are expected to vote for him come election time. I am seeing it almost everywhere.

Last night, I saw several Digong supporters wearing red t-shirts with their idol's face emblazoned on it, doing the rounds. They gave several tarps to padyak boys and those men actually hid those tarps. Obviously, these people are sympathizers but because they "know the system", they would, obviously, not show who are they voting for, for obvious reasons--they risk being "tagged" by the enemy (city hall officials) and being tagged means not being able to do what they want to do.

I also saw it last night in Mandaluyong and several other areas in the Metro. It seems like there is this "secret"  movement going on and everyone is expected to join it.

Duterte is calling for a massive show of force come May 7, ostensibly to show the "other side" meaning his political nemesis, namely, the Liberals and the Magdalos, that they cannot once more run roughshod democratic processes in this country. There are obvious signs of an impending electoral crisis, and this obviously does not bode well for all of us.

As predicted in this space many months ago, the aim of these cheaters is to debilitate the Vice president. Surveys upon surveys have been published ostensibly to show his numbers going South. Everyone knows that the real opponent of Roxas is really the Vice president for three reasons: first, Binay has the most extensive grassroots political machinery among the candidates; two, Binay has funds and logistical support from his friends and political allies and three, Binay is the only candidate acceptable to the middle class, business community and even with millennials. Yes, there are charges of corruption heaped against the vice president but this pales in comparison with several grievous sins committed by Mar (rape of Yolanda funds and the graft committed by his political associates and friends) and his "alleged counterpart", Grace Poe. Poe's grievous sin is her not disclosing her real citizenship status and this will hound her even if she snag this election.

What happened was, everyone, except Roxas, had legal and physical infirmities. Even Digong right now is being accused actually of both: legal, because he admitted receiving gifts from several people, including businessmen, when in office. Digong admitted that he has an ailment due to age, and even Binay said, Digong is suffering from three ailments.

With most candidates under a cloud of doubt, this is being used as enough reason to "expect" a Roxas win. As I wrote in this space several occasions already, these cheaters have achieved their goal of showing that every candidate has at least 20% of the votes. Roxas has achieved that because if you get the average of all his survey ratings from all survey firms, you would get an average of 20%.

Surprisingly, this goes as well with Binay, Digong and Poe, but obviously not with Miriam. They did not bother with Miriam anyway simply on the basis that voters will not vote for her anyway seeing her physical condition.

Yet, Miriam is still very much important in this electoral contest because she gets an average of 4-5% of the votes which in a 40 million voter turnout, is a substantial 2 million votes. In a four-way "tie", the scenario which these cheaters want to effect is really for a Roxas win even in the slimmest of margins. It can be 500k or at best, 1 million.

Again, let us compute.

We have 54.3 million registered voters, according to the Comelec. Comelec expects a turnout of at least 80% which roughly represents, 43.4 million. Out of this number, Comelec expects several "spoiled ballots" owning for technical reasons which represent at the most, 2 million. So, these candidates for the presidency are actually vying for the vote of around 40-41 million voters.

Now, analysts say, the four candidates, namely, Binay, Poe, Roxas, and Duterte have each 20%. That represents 80% of 40 million. That represents 32 million votes. What is left is 8 million votes which, if Miriam's core voters do vote for her, this figure would decrease by at least 2 million votes. So, we are seeing just six (6) million votes being contested by these candidates.

Supposing that the four gets 22% each. That is 88% of the votes. That is 35.2 million. Again, deduct 2 million which represents Miriam's core voters, and the margin of win so to speak for a candidate in this elections, range from a low of 500,000 to a high of 2 million votes.

This shows you how hotly contested this electoral contest is.

What I fear is this---for these cheaters to use what is happening right now with Digong and use it to justify a SWING VOTE. Meaning, there was a last ditch fall out of Digong and Binay supporters and these transferred to Roxas.

Remember: compared with Roxas, Poe is unlikely to benefit from the swing or fallout vote because everyone knows she does not have a political machinery to monitor and protect her votes. These exact statement could be used to justify cheating for Mr. Roxas.


There is another way for Mar to win---prevent the mobs from voting Binay or Duterte. How to do just that? Simple--shorten the voting time, which the Comelec already did. Instead of adding time to the process of voting because of the additional requirement of producing receipts, the Comelec even shortened the time for voters to vote. That means lesser votes for his political nemesis. The less number of voters mean more possibility of snagging enough voter support for Roxas.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Fearless Forecast on the May 9, 2016 Presidential elections

This early, one may actually determine the person who would win this May 9 Presidential elections.

1. This person is NOT endorsed or being supported by the present administration. This is always the case in the Philippines. Normally, our voters vote for "change" every single election---and "change" is interpreted as voting for the counter-elite, or "bago naman" is mis-interpreted as the other side of the political fence.

In the last 30 years POST-EDSA, all presidents who ran and won were members of the counter-elite of their presidents, i.e., Estrada from Ramos, Aquino from Arroyo and Arroyo from Estrada.

2. At no point in the elections in the past 30 years that a candidate won without an established traditional political machinery. Some people say that Ramos won without a political machinery. Wrong. He has his own Lakas-CMD aided by Cory Aquino's yellow army. Estrada had his Jeep while Pnoy had his own vaulted yellow groups.

3. The formula in winning the presidential race is:

3.1. Perception base is 1/4th of the expected volume of votes per candidate. To complete the picture, here are the other slices                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                voting success pie:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1/2 will come from what we describe as core base and 1/4 will come from command votes or votes generated by the traditional political party machinery. So, that is how political strategists count the votes for their candidates.                                                    

Pinoy appealed to church officials not to call for his detention post-Administration

Our source confirmed what we feared all along---a systematic rigging of the elections to favor a candidate despised by many. The environment is now set. His operators and the activities prior to the announcement of this election's winner are now in place. This is irreversible.

The next question is--will they or will they not?

Several sources also confirmed that certain groups are preparing for an actual direct confrontation with these cheaters. We knew this is going to happen. The only question is---is the anti-cheating force strong enough to counter state power?

We must be very vigilant. Certain groups are now calculating their resources and their men. Are these people ready for the extreme situation?

By the way....

A source says that when Pnoy visited the Iglesia Ni Cristo officials, the president reportedly appealed to spare him from prosecution should the INC candidate wins. Sources say officials of this administration is in panic mode.

They should be. They would be hunted by the despicable things they did just to perpetuate themselves to power.

For this year, this elections would either pave the way for change thru constitutional or thru a caretaker government.

This elections have changed complexion and tone. It has become extremely personal. And when people turn personal, the political climate will probably be hotter than this El Nino phenomenon. 

The only thing is--will this be better for us or will we dig our own grave? We will find out next week.

Binay to Digong: Now you are feeling what I felt when I was "it"

When Vice president Jejomar Binay was being accused by these gang of mercenaries based at the Senate, some of us believed them. When these same guys accused now Mayor Digong, some of us even defended him.

There is a gulf of difference between what Binay was being accused of and of that of Mayor Digong. For one, there is not a single shred of evidence that truly establishes him as a corrupt guy. The COA or Commission on Audit always gave him and the City government of Makati, a clean bill of health. Yet, due to the continuous barrage of these accusations, a lie was perpetuated and it stuck in the public sphere.

In the case of Mayor Digong, there is concrete evidence that he has a bank account and that account contains monies, probably in the hundreds of millions. And what is our reaction?

Binay is a victim of injustice but he just swallows all of these things because he is a decent man. He is a man who respects the rights of others, even though there are some of us who just don't.

My respect goes to the Vice President. We need such a man.

Before you vote this May 9, consider these...

What we don't normally realize is that, when we vote for someone for the presidency, you are not just electing one person---you are practically voting and hiring people who are behind him. Any president is as good as his appointees in the bureaucracy and if you think the person you are voting for this May 9 happens to be associated with grafters, corrupt men and vice lords or businessmen with big business interests with government, think again.

That's why it is important that we know who are the people (1) financing him (2) working for him (3) defending him against brickbats and obviously, in relations with him or her.

Remember how it went down when Pnoy assumed office. Pnoy appointed his close friends, relatives and business associates in government and looked what happened. We were fooled into believing that when we voted for Pnoy, we voted an honest person in office. We probably did, yet, those very close to him were'nt. That explains why we are such in a rut right now.

This elections is very crucial to us. Let us vote wisely. Think before you vote.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Why protest votes harm us instead of help us change Filipino society

Let's reason together--are we going to vote for someone just because we are sick and tired of what is happening in our country? Honestly, we have been doing exactly just that when our parents trooped to the snap elections of 1985 to oust a dictator. After Cory, his successor, bungled the most tiring task of societal re-construction, we, again, voted as a people and elected a general, former president Fidel Valdez Ramos, Win the slimmest of margins, thinking that, we need someone, a member of the military to rule us. Six years passed, and, in another show of emotionalism, we did not support the recommended successor of Ramos, and instead trained our attention to a former actor-mayor-senator-vice president whose popularity made him win against his closest competitor by 40%

Of course, we know what happened next--the most popular president out of office after just nearly three years. Why? Because we thought then that he was an embarrassment-- Estrada was a night person who reportedly decides on state matters with his drinking buddies. Not only that--Estrada reminded us of the conduct of the former dictator whom the people ousted in 1986. Memories of that glorious day prompted us to go to the streets and demand a better president. And we know what happened next.

The one who replaced Estrada, a former professor turned senator, looked like she was the one we needed. After the initial euphoria, we realized that she was actually worse than Erap. And for nine long years, we witnessed the systematic transformation of our bureaucracy into a big louse of a syndicate, controlled by various oligarchic families out to make a fast buck out of all of us. Taxes rose, food prices soared and basic services became extremely unbearable. We suffered back then.

That became the reason for our electing a senator whose 10-year record as a legislator was, at best, good enough. We know he's kinda weird looking, with some of us even doubting why he remains a fiftish bachelor and doubted even more if he's capable of managing crisis situations, especially when we read his psych record. We threw caution out of the window, and elected him instead of a big-time billionaire who had an impressive record as a politician cum businessman.

Look at our 30 year record---in every election, we, the Filipino voter, troop to our polling precincts and voted out of rage. From that fateful 1985 snap elections to 2010, we elected presidents based on what we feel--not what is rational and what is needed for the times.

That explains why Jovy Salonga, the most intelligent and the most nationalist of all senators, lost the 1992 elections and former defense secretary Renato de Villa did not get elected in 1998. The votes which we gave to Ramos, Erap and Pnoy were all made while we were angry.

Haven't we learned from our parents never to decide when we are angry? Experience tells us that when we do such things, the outcome is far less than expected.

2016 elections is a crucial watershed of our History. We don't need to be emotional this time. Doing so would bring us back to the Middle Ages and would worsen our already worsening situation.

Before we vote, let's do a quick check and see where these candidates stand on several sensitive issues. After doing so, let's then, fact check their respective backgrounds. Check who are these people behind this and that candidate, and further check their backgrounds. Are they former government officials? How many of them are facing graft cases? Who are these businessmen backing the candidate up?

I remember one expert sage saying that " the wisdom of the mob is at best, faulty."  We are being made to believe that this and that candidate enjoys popular approval and as a matter of course, follow. No.

We know already that flavors of the mouth are always second best to traditional favorites. Matinee idols are flashes in the pan. At most, one-hit wonders of a singer is never remembered compared to those who already had a string of Top forties.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Duterte, rape and our insidious minds

Rody Duterte may actually be cuddly cute to some, a monster to others. Whatever he dishes out gets the banner story spot because, for the second time, we have someone who talks like a toughie and claims that he is the real McCoy.

Well, I had one during my teen days, and based on my experience, some are just huff and puff guys and most are, well flexing their muscles to hide their weaknesses. What gets everyone's attention is the disruptive ways Duterte does things. Of course, people would take notice because these are things often left as stuff classified as "for the boy's"

What is so worrisome, to say the least, is what's on Duterte's insidious mind. Are we protesting because Duterte spoke his mind and there are children around? Or are we protesting because he said something bad (or stupid to some, horrible to others)?

Is it bad to think about beautiful ladies being raped and you're not one of those who lined up for the take? Yes, because that shows borderline serial rapist. The mere thought of raping someone is automatically, a sign of a sick mind. It does not just offend the victim, and former victims of violence--it also offends even those decent persons out there who were treated with this inanity.

But, someone would say--which is more offensive---wholesale rape by the State or a gang rape by prisoners or rape by a mayor? I am reminded of Mayor Sanchez of Calauan Laguna who raped and brutally murdered a young UP Los Banos student.

I remember that incident because it laid bare local political dynamics, of how townfolks literally made the mayor their local god, of how they praised him and even defended this Mayor inspite of the gruesome rape and murder he did with the UP student.

Rape, by all means, is simply not just a sexual assault or an act committed not just to debase the humanity of the victim--but to show power, to show who is "boss". There is still no in-depth research but I think that rape or the idea of rape is something which is deeply imbedded into our conscious or sub-conscious minds and is a left-over act from our Stone Age life.

Duterte said, his utterances were "left overs" from his proletarian life--a life which he probably invented and he probably convinced himself that he belonged to the lowest of classes. Duterte did not belong to the poorest ranks because his father was a judge and his mother, a teacher. He, himself, was a fiscal and a mayor for many years.

Besides, I don't believe those who belonged to the lowest rungs of our society would ever think of lining up and raping someone and getting satisfaction from it. Poor people are more decent than the wealthy and the power-trippers--remember those scions of Cebuano families who were convicted of raping a young girl in Cebu city?

Worrisome or not, but Duterte is really in his element right now---creating buzz. Of course, these are simply not attributable to his PR handlers, namely Lito Banayo, Willie Fernandez and another old fogey. These people do not need tons of money for their client to get printed space--Duterte, by his own, is cover material.

A revolutionist is someone who disrupts things, who creates opportunities and definitely Duterte fits  that mold "like a T". The problem really is, Duterte often forgets that he is gunning for the presidency--not the mayoralty race. Duterte knows that there are certain sensitivities, often cultural, that someone like him, who is now a national celebrity, that he must consider before opening his mouth. That is not a skill---but a necessary trait a person aspiring for the presidency must remember if he definitely dead-set on becoming one.

Now, for those who worry about the likelihood of a Duterte presidency, the solution really is for everyone to ignore Duterte's rants and pants and just maintain unspeakable silence.

Rice smugglers backing Digong?

I was disturbed when I heard that Lito Banayo, the former National Food Authority (NFA) administrator is now handling Mayor Rody Duterte's PR campaign. Inquirer columnist Mon Tulfo wrote several moons ago, how rice smuggling spiked during Banayo's time. Tulfo even narrated how President Aquino reportedly "berated" Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson for recommending Banayo to the post, after reports surfaced that Banayo gave several importation permits to several smugglers who reportedly used these permits in several illicit importations. It was during Banayo's time that prices of rice rose to astronomical heights.

When Banayo's name was linked to big-time Chinoy rice smuggler Bangayan, Banayo reportedly was forced to resign his post and he slid into the night as if nothing happened. The Senate never summoned Banayo.

At the height of the rice smuggling brouhaha, Bangayan's main area of operations, which is Davao, was mentioned. Back then, Mayor Duterte's name surfaced, with some innuendoes given that Bangayan reportedly enjoyed the blessings and "protection" of Digong. To his credit, Digong behemently denied his links with Bangayan, even ordered his "execution" when he steps foot in Davao City.

When the scandal died down, Bangayan was often seen in Davao City, swapping jokes with several other rich traders there. Bangayan is still alive.

I have a challenge to Digong--since he postures himself as a toughie, why not make a sample out of Bangayan? Likewise, why surround yourself with people with graft cases? Banayo should answer all these charges against him and for the interest of justice, should 

If Duterte wins--who guards him?

I am highly cognizant of what is happening at ground level--and I commend Duterte for accomplishing what no other leader or revolutionary leader had in five centuries---that of arousing the sleeping giant, the Filipino People, from its deep slumber.

The effects of his revolutionary rhetoric have now seeped deep within the socio-economic layers of Filipino society in such magnitude as to again, spur Filipinos to take action. From all parts of the archipelago and even abroad, thousands of Filipinos are now decisively behind Duterte, who has now, wittingly or unwittingly, achieved rock star status. From across several socio-economic classes, Filipinos are doing their own gimmicks---printing their own shirts, dabbling into advertising and creating their own slogans for Duterte.

People are calling for him to lead them. The question really is---where? Where does Duterte intend to lead the people?

Another question really is---if Duterte does indeed get the top plum this May 9, who will guard him?

As they say--power corrupts. Even Duterte's idol, the late strongman Ferdie Marcos Senior suffered a severe case of megalomania when he stayed in Malacanang long after his legitimate and constitutional term of office expired. The people fell behind Marcos when he declared martial law but left him 14 years later when several oppositionists exposed how corrupt he and his family were during the dictatorship.

Don't tell me that Duterte is infallible that he is immune from the sheer smell of wealth and the frenzied and dazzling brilliance of power? Nakakatakot because Duterte has roused the people from their sleep and the question really is---does he really have the wherewithal to control the mob who now is acting like how it did in that May 1 revolt several years ago?

Remember the French in their revolutions, the Africans in theirs, and most especially the Asians who underwent the harrowing experience of revolutions! In all of these case studies, the worse model came from strongman-inspired revolts supported by a people almost hypnotized by the sweet aroma of quick fixes. Thousands of people died of PolPot's revolution and nearly a million went either missing or dead in Idi Amin's reign of terror. The possibility that this humongous Spirit which Duterte invoked from its comatose existence and for spooking the people to acquiesce will go on a wayward path is huge! For until now, Duterte has not given anything concrete, especially on how to lead this revolution which he lit--wittingly or unwittingly. This is dangerous. It has placed the entire country in the brink of uncertainty and doom.

Duterte must recognize that it is a disservice to the country and to its people if he does not lead this movement towards its logical end--that of changing and overhauling the very system that had enslaved the people for so long. It would be extremely dangerous for Duterte if he invokes the people into action and then, at midstream, Duterte does a Pnoy--that would finally shatter the strongman concept and eventually, would lead to chaos and destruction.

Thoughts on the Huling Harapan: The 4th Presidential Debates

It was supposed to be a "debate". But concepts like town halls are not designed for "debates" but for "discussion of issues". That explains why the presidential candidates last night had the time of their lives trying to explain their "visions" and "platforms" for the country instead of seeing them fighting it out, and dishing out dirt with one another.

I thank ABS-CBN for being true to the concept of town halls. Town halls are a great way for the people to raise issues and bring it to the consciousness of their leaders. This is democracy at work.

Anyway, what came out was expected---two (2) veteran campaigners, namely, Vice president Jejomar Binay and Liberal party presidentiable Mar Roxas came out swinging in the first parts of the "debate". Their styles suit the format of the show. Binay was able to explain his platform very clearly while Mar did his usual spiels, defending the so-called "accomplishments of this administration" and "promising to do more."

Grace Poe appeared to have studied the topics more carefully this time, while her counterpart, Miriam Defensor-Santiago seemed at her feisty best, save for that occasional memory loss. Miriam admitted that she was "on drugs", a miracle pill that is "very expensive" but is designed to fight off cancer cells. Inspite of some bouts of "memory gaps", Miriam's eloquence and her brilliant yet bigoted mind shone thru. I compared her to Senator Jovy Salonga who fought the good fight and continued to be brilliant even at the twilight of his years. She is expected to lose this fight once more, but I think she earned the right to be described as " the lady who nearly became the third lady president"

I also laud Grace Poe for now having not just the knowledge but the wisdom about the state of our people.I  I now concede that this was a good opportunity for her, a sort of preparation, for her eventual ascension to the presidency six years from now. The campaign exposed her to the realities on the ground and her answers clearly reflected a deeper appreciation and understanding of Filipino reality. Her comments about the state of government hospitals connected with us, and her genuine concern with the poor was very clear in her answers.

Alas! Though she beams "hope and promise", Poe is clearly not prepared, no, not this time. She needs more time to go to the masses and understand things more on the perspective of the Filipino. I think Grace Poe is ready to become president by 2022, when all these nasty things about our life would have been resolved and by then, we need a new "visionary" to guide our people to greater and higher things.

As things stand, we need someone who has the steely will and the right ideological perspective to lead us in a revolution against the oligarchs who rule this land with impunity.

I had hoped that Duterte is the one. Rody Duterte possesses a great mind and a fuller and deeper understanding of how things are " at grassroots level." The question really is---it is evident that Duterte's appreciation of what is happening at ground level is different from what is actually happening.

For one, he has this bigoted view on the poor. When he cusses in public, Duterte says that's how the poor talk. Really now? I remember when I was poor, I never cuss. The fact is, I refused to cuss because I was raised by my mother's family to be respectful of others. Those who cuss more often, I observed, were those belonging to the middle class, who pepper their sentences with "P...ina" like prefixes and suffixes.

The poor neither are in the business of raping somebody, and lining themselves up for the deed. I remember some filthy rich snobs from Cebu doing exactly that, and of course, those demons whom he killed inside the Davao penal colony.

Yes, when you are poor, you live a very dangerous life, but that does not mean that you have lost all humanity, civility and "urbanidad"? Among my friends, I consider to be dearest to me are those who live in the slums, whose friendships I hold very dear because they are true to their word and would die for you.

Like a necromancer, Duterte invoked the proper mantras and had successfully raised the Spirit that once galvanized the nation in 1986. Whereas the counter-elitist slogan was "peaceful revolt", this time I think, Duterte has raised from the dead, a malingering Spirit, a version of the Inang Bayan, with a scathe at her hand.

The question really is---is Duterte up to the task? Is Duterte leading us to the right direction?

Right now, my answer is NO.

For one thing, a president is only as good as his men, the people behind him. When I researched about him, Duterte has surrounded himself with former Arroyo henchmen, Ramos Boys, former generals with some accused of graft and corruption, and former government officials with various cases of impropriety and corruption.

These men have one thing in common--they want to regain their former statuses to shield them from the people's justice. Just read Rappler and you'll find that most, if not all, members of Duterte's campaign team are Arroyo's men, Ramos' bright boys and several others who want nothing more than get positions of power to perpetuate their own personal interests, not the interests of the masses.

Duterte is also being supported by several businessmen involved in numerous illicit activities. Yes, Duterte will probably annihilate the "vice lords", but I figured, the reason for him doing so is for his own group to dominate the landscape and further syndicalize the already syndicated government bureaucracy.

Duterte has invoked the Spirit of the Philippine Revolution, but in doing so, he is now facing the most lethal societal force ever in our nation's history. The question is---is he up to the job and does he have the right moral values to lead this revolution to its penultimate end--that is the creation of a true and just and humane society in lieu of a slowly rotting superstructure?

Likewise, Duterte has many aspiring Rasputins behind him, all lusting for their share of the power pie and all plotting for the destruction of their enemies, both inside and outside Duterte's circle. If Duterte wins, these guys would turn against each other, and we would have a government that is so fucked up, we would probably curse ourselves why we elected Duterte in the first place.

What am I saying here?

Duterte needs guidance. He must be made to realize that this is not anymore a mayoral fight. He has elected to play the game of the Big Boys, and these Big Boys are not your usual Davao thugs, oh no. These Big Boys are armed. These Big Boys and corrupt Girls have the wherewithal. If Duterte can kill, so are these people. These people cum parasites have played the game for over 30 years and have made it their professions to pull the strings of this syndicate of a government.

Promising to get rid of them within six months? You wish. You can't even rid yourself of men of dubious characters within your own circle and you had the temerity of promising to get the country clean within that period?

Duterte needs to lead a meaningful and substantive revolution. He needs to rally the productive forces as well as the true revolutionary forces and launch a true revolution that would result to a better Philippine society, built under the terms of the People, and absent the oligarchy.

If Duterte is sincere, yes, that six month period is doable provided that he spares no one, not even his closest advisers. If he would just use revolutionary rhetoric just to spare his friends and condemn his enemies, then Duterte serves only his personal interests, not of the country's. He definitely is like the one who endorses him who thinks he is the anointed Son of God.

For this, my judgment about Duterte is still guarded. For the sake of this country, we need a leader who is experienced and capable and independent of oligarchic influence.

Someone who is a humanist, who loves his fellow human being and who knows the law and is prepared not just to follow the Constitution but possesses a strong character to fight off those oligarchs who continue to oppress our people.

Let's look beyond Duterte and see if there is someone like this.

For now, I have one in mind--Leni Robredo, but she is running for the vice presidency. Between a clone and a falsely accused man, I would choose the falsely accused, Binay, to lead us to a revolution.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Why Duterte seemed to have pulled away--and why I still believe that this is not enough to pull a victory

I agree with a political analyst that the reason why Mayor Rody Duterte seemed to have "pulled away" in the newest poll surveys is his "clear message" against criminality. Duterte has a very simple prescription---elimination of vice lords and crime lords, period. In the minds of the people, that is swift action. Duterte's handlers have identified a very clear delineation or shall we say, Duterte's competitive advantage over the other presidential candidates which is basically, a man that does not clutter his messages with scholarly explanations, and just settled himself with short, crisp, curt words that resonate with the public.

Honestly, if I'm Duterte's opponent, I would not be alarmed by his recent rise. First, this is expected since this is entirely the first time for the public to meet and take a look at this guy from the South who dared challenge the established oligarchy. Clearly, the surveys would reflect public approbation in the first meeting, and due to his impeccable timing, results of this first time meeting with the voting publics are being interpreted already by many, as a possible or clear sign of victory.

Why am I not alarmed? First, this is the first time that Duterte got a survey rating on the national scale. Will this indicate a runaway win? Of course not, definitely not and surely not a definite indicator of poll victory. Every analyst knows that there is such a thing as a "flavor of the month" and surely, Duterte is now "it". Unfortunately, we don't have enough time to test how resilient he is in maintaining top post. The next surveys will be very close to D-Day, and surely these survey results would still indicate the initial public views about him. We don't have enough time to determine if the public approval of Duterte is solid or just a flash in the pan thing.

Eventually, I believe that this initial public animation of Duterte will dissipate just like what is happening now to Grace Poe, who is fast losing steam because she is now "one of "them"---meaning one of those candidates being financed by the Oligarchs and her lack of a clear, even thought-provoking message, is pulling her South-ward. Believe you me---Grace Poe's campaign is described as "tinimbang ka ngunit kulang"---a consequence of her over exposure.

I expected this to happen to Grace Poe because the more she exposes herself, the more people realize how weak, how amateurish and how she lacks the proper skills of a Chief Executive. Her responses during these debates are not as impressive as Duterte's. Clearly, voters are slowly realising Grace Poe as unfit for the job.

The fact is---Poe is losing heavily and her supporters are considering other candidates because like her mentor, Chiz Escudero, voters are realising that she is completely a fake. Fake citizenship, foreigner husband, etal. There is so much baggage that Poe-Llamanzares carries that this confuses the public even more.

What would spell the end of Poe's campaign to victory is the perception that she is but a stooge of Aquino---a very strong turn off for her. One tip to those who are opposing her campaign---just compare her statements with those of President Aquino and that would be the end of her. Eventhough the surveys show a medium high approval of Aquino as president, this does not translate into an effective endorsement. Look at Mar--the more Aquino endorses him, the lower his ratings go.

At the end of this all, when all noise has decisively come to an end, this campaign would then be tested thru the traditional way---the tried and tested capability of party networks to deliver voters to the precincts and protection of votes.

Those "ooohs and ahhs" and " thunderous claps" and "massive jam-packed stadiums" do not ensure victory---those machines do. 

Duterte and Poe supporters are claiming they already have the network. Yes, they have millions of volunteers but to organize them and transform them into an effective voter getter and vote protection machine, remains to be seen. Remember that only accredited party members are allowed inside those voting precincts...

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Aquino administration's Alcala denies food shortage inspite of Kidapawan clash

Agriculture secretary Alcala appeared before GMA news show, "Jessica Soho's State of the Nation" and said that there was no rice shortage in Kidapawan. Alcala made it appear that the clash between the farmers and cops was a "sad, unfortunate event" and was a manipulation made by an un-named group. Alcala said that there was no shortage of rice and admitted that the provincial government was actually giving out rice packs to hungry farmers.

Bull. Crap. Alcala was caught on camera touching his nose which appeared longer and stouter than usual.

First off, it was hunger that led farmers to protest. There was drought, and the lack of preparedness worsened its effects upon the people. Alcala said he was there a few weeks ago, and more than 6,000 farmers and their families went to see him to tell him the situation. But, like his principal, Alcala did not do anything, and he just let things boil to such a state as to necessitate a clash which resulted to several people injured and at least three people killed.

Second, upon investigation, it appeared that these farmers were promised packs of rice as food assistance. When no rice was produced, they began to complain. And when they complained this administration resorted to what has been a governmental policy already---use or resort to state forces. Cops who were stationed there to "keep the peace", reportedly instigated the clash when they told the rallyists to disperse. Meaning, these cops probably did not know or never attended any crisis management seminar.

Alcala was obviously trained to "shift the blame" and re-direct the attention of the public from the clash and tried to portray it as an insurgency-related incident. That is the problem. This administration has been used to always shift blame or keep a nonchalant stance that issues remain and problems lead to crises.