Had this happen in a Presidential election, things would have escalated to such proportions which would prove too difficult for the Commission on Elections to handle. The fact that it would be too costly and too disruptive for a candidate or a political party to question the results is one reason why no group raised the alarm bells on a higher level.
This also shows you how people perceive technology---something unknown should never be questioned by the uninitiated. Imagine how costly for someone to ask the Commission on Elections to provide him or his political party of the CF cards and read their contents, one by one.
If a review of the elections is held, it would take more than six months before a conclusive result would happen and released in the media. By that time, those proclaimed will already be serving by then, and it would be extremely difficult for the protestant to bend the situation to his favor.
What am I saying? If we continue on this path, we may as well accept that the political leadership in this country will always be at the caprice and whim of the elite. We need to accept this because this is entirely true.
What is most certain is this---this administration claims that it has a hold over the Lower House. Well, I perused the lists of winners in Congress and I don't know where the administration got its data. In the island of Luzon, specifically vote rich areas, the UNA or its affiliates, won there. In the Visayas, yes, LP won. However, in Mindanao, those who won are actually non-LP members. Lakas NUCD is still a force to reckon with as this National Unity Party, or NUP, a party of pro-Arroyo legislators who formed their own party wisely not choosing either administration or pseudo-opposition.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Friday, May 17, 2013
Resist Comelec brute force proclamation of Senatorial race winners!
Democracy exists because it is the only system in the world that respects the voice of the Individual. That voice, which in the case of the Philippines, is heard and respected with utmost banality, is heard every three years, in every election.
That voice is also being dictated and muzzled upon by a handful of people appointed by the Powers-that-be to just ensure that elections are conducted based on justice and law.
Now, the integrity of this elections is slowly being tainted by the desire of a few to ensure their perpetuation to Power.
Why proclaim when 11.5 million votes (some say it is still 30 million) are still lurking in cyberspace and are still not counted? Why the rush, says Senatoriable Koko Pimentel.
As I wrote in my previous blogs, every single thing that this government has accomplished will all go down the drain if it fails to keep this election clean.
What is going on? Comelec desires a quick count when it knows that it is totally impossible because of some systemic anomalies that occurred shortly after the voting stopped. Comelec cannot even tell us how many Filipinos were disfranchised and how many voters deliberately boycotted this election.
The same ailment now afflicts this administration, the very same disease that the decrepit Arroyo administration suffered---power-nitis.
We, as a People, should resist this and we should protest because it is quite obvious now---the will of the people has been compromised.
We may never know who really won the Senatorial race because our minds have been pre-programmed to accept results which have been dictated upon us by a select few.
Resist now or forever hold your tongue!
That voice is also being dictated and muzzled upon by a handful of people appointed by the Powers-that-be to just ensure that elections are conducted based on justice and law.
Now, the integrity of this elections is slowly being tainted by the desire of a few to ensure their perpetuation to Power.
Why proclaim when 11.5 million votes (some say it is still 30 million) are still lurking in cyberspace and are still not counted? Why the rush, says Senatoriable Koko Pimentel.
As I wrote in my previous blogs, every single thing that this government has accomplished will all go down the drain if it fails to keep this election clean.
What is going on? Comelec desires a quick count when it knows that it is totally impossible because of some systemic anomalies that occurred shortly after the voting stopped. Comelec cannot even tell us how many Filipinos were disfranchised and how many voters deliberately boycotted this election.
The same ailment now afflicts this administration, the very same disease that the decrepit Arroyo administration suffered---power-nitis.
We, as a People, should resist this and we should protest because it is quite obvious now---the will of the people has been compromised.
We may never know who really won the Senatorial race because our minds have been pre-programmed to accept results which have been dictated upon us by a select few.
Resist now or forever hold your tongue!
Nancy Binay proved more Senatoriable than First 5
Now I understand why millions of Filipinos voted for Nancy Binay---she has the right moral compass and does not salivate for power.
Unlike the first 5 proclaimed winners in the Senatorial circle in this year's election, Nancy Binay did not attend her own proclamation because she does not believe that the 79 Cocs which only total 13 million votes truly reflect the will of 52 million registered voters.
That shows you that Nancy possesses the character of a true Binay--a democrat thru and thru. I cannot say that to Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Alan Peter Cayetano and Grace Poe. I can understand Grace Poe. Her top position is unassailable. I cannot say that of the rest of the top five because 11 million uncounted votes are still considered "big" in my estimation and can still statistically affect the final outcome.
Example--what if half of that 11 million voted for, say, Enrile, who is now in the fifteen spot with 7.3 million votes and sadly, from the 11 million, only 3 million voted for, say Angara (10.2 m). That's 3 million additional votes to Enrile would put him on par with Angara. Possible? Yes, because that 11.5 m uncounted votes are statistically huge not to affect the final result.
Why is the Comelec all of a sudden rushing the proclamation? Several people speculate that Comelec is fearful that as the day prolongs, the more possible human intervention. That 9-3 might not be 9-3 afterall but 7-5, if we are to truly count the votes cast.
Or, Comelec fears that people will scalp their heads, if many people learn that those CF cards do not contain any data at all.
Unlike the first 5 proclaimed winners in the Senatorial circle in this year's election, Nancy Binay did not attend her own proclamation because she does not believe that the 79 Cocs which only total 13 million votes truly reflect the will of 52 million registered voters.
That shows you that Nancy possesses the character of a true Binay--a democrat thru and thru. I cannot say that to Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Alan Peter Cayetano and Grace Poe. I can understand Grace Poe. Her top position is unassailable. I cannot say that of the rest of the top five because 11 million uncounted votes are still considered "big" in my estimation and can still statistically affect the final outcome.
Example--what if half of that 11 million voted for, say, Enrile, who is now in the fifteen spot with 7.3 million votes and sadly, from the 11 million, only 3 million voted for, say Angara (10.2 m). That's 3 million additional votes to Enrile would put him on par with Angara. Possible? Yes, because that 11.5 m uncounted votes are statistically huge not to affect the final result.
Why is the Comelec all of a sudden rushing the proclamation? Several people speculate that Comelec is fearful that as the day prolongs, the more possible human intervention. That 9-3 might not be 9-3 afterall but 7-5, if we are to truly count the votes cast.
Or, Comelec fears that people will scalp their heads, if many people learn that those CF cards do not contain any data at all.
Slash and burn in 2013 mid-term elections
Pretend that I am an election operator, and a rich guy wants to become a Senator, how will I assure his victory?
Well, what I'll do is I'll operate the election results in his favor in non-descript rural areas. I will slash at least 40 votes per precinct, which, if you translate it to 70,000 precincts, that would mean 3.16 million votes already secured. How do I do this? Intercept the transmission and replace it with data that will reflect bawas-dagdag electronically. I have two sources from which to get my 40 votes extra--one, from the pool of disfranchised voters, and second, from voters whose names are still in the database but are now dead.
Meaning, if there are 1,000 voters in a polling precinct, there would probably be about 300 voters who will be disfranchised and only 700 voters allowed by the system to vote. From that 700 voters, I already secured some votes. Now, if I want my 200 votes from the 700 voters increase? I slash 40 either from that disfranchised set or those already dead but are still in the voter's digital directory. That 40 votes extra, translate that into, say 60,000 times, means substantial figure already. Unnoticeable is'nt it since I slashed the votes not from urban areas where a slight data sub will not be discovered.
Well, what I'll do is I'll operate the election results in his favor in non-descript rural areas. I will slash at least 40 votes per precinct, which, if you translate it to 70,000 precincts, that would mean 3.16 million votes already secured. How do I do this? Intercept the transmission and replace it with data that will reflect bawas-dagdag electronically. I have two sources from which to get my 40 votes extra--one, from the pool of disfranchised voters, and second, from voters whose names are still in the database but are now dead.
Meaning, if there are 1,000 voters in a polling precinct, there would probably be about 300 voters who will be disfranchised and only 700 voters allowed by the system to vote. From that 700 voters, I already secured some votes. Now, if I want my 200 votes from the 700 voters increase? I slash 40 either from that disfranchised set or those already dead but are still in the voter's digital directory. That 40 votes extra, translate that into, say 60,000 times, means substantial figure already. Unnoticeable is'nt it since I slashed the votes not from urban areas where a slight data sub will not be discovered.
How to win an election in the Philippines? Manipulate transmissions, says experts
Several reports are coming in, in what others term as "ghostly transmissions". Imagine, there were at least 3,000 instances where the Comelec Transparency servers received transmissions from areas where PCOS machines were reportedly "out of commission". Where did those servers get those transmissions from? Are all sources legitimate or real, as in, these transmissions really emanated from the areas named?
That's why Smartmatic, according to some, is not really worried because they have this IT audit logs which reflect the source, time, and date of these transmissions to the server. The question some people are asking--how fool-proof are these transmissions? Were these servers fed the right information?
Experts in the IT world are familiar with the term "mirror sites". A hacker can actually mimick, say, a Yahoo site and make it appear legitimate. IN this case, some of those whom I talked to, say that these servers can be pre-programmed to accept transmissions from "mirror sites", by inputting a different IP address instead of those addresses by the PCOS machines. I ask---what happens to transmissions sent by the legitimate PCOS machines? Another said that these could be re-directed to another server. Meaning, real results can actually be housed or kept in a separate place, and not in the Comelec transparency servers.
Comelec chair Sixto Brillantes says the reason why transmissions slowed was because of the tiered or ladderized system, wherein data from the precincts will go to the municipality, and the municipality will go to the provincial, and then to region and Comelec. Since we are talking about 78,000 precincts, the possibility of a "jam" exists.
Fact is, manipulation of these results can happen, according to IT experts from AMA and STI schools, from intervention, signals coming from another source, replacing those from legitimate sources. Meaning, the "cheating" happens not in the precincts or optical scanners---it happens during transmission. You don't need jammers to rig an election. You only need to redirect transmission to another server and fed the legitimate servers with information you desire. Intervention may be made in a few hundreds in clustered precincts. Translate those manipulations to
This explains why most transmissions happen in the dead of the night, where vigilance is at its lowest.
NOw, so that explains why Comelec right now is in a rush to proclaim because people are slowly learning the process of this elections. This also shows that there is a small group of people manipulating these results, for the sake of the people? Nah.
What do we really want? A faster yet unreliable count? Or a truthful yet slower count?
That's why Smartmatic, according to some, is not really worried because they have this IT audit logs which reflect the source, time, and date of these transmissions to the server. The question some people are asking--how fool-proof are these transmissions? Were these servers fed the right information?
Experts in the IT world are familiar with the term "mirror sites". A hacker can actually mimick, say, a Yahoo site and make it appear legitimate. IN this case, some of those whom I talked to, say that these servers can be pre-programmed to accept transmissions from "mirror sites", by inputting a different IP address instead of those addresses by the PCOS machines. I ask---what happens to transmissions sent by the legitimate PCOS machines? Another said that these could be re-directed to another server. Meaning, real results can actually be housed or kept in a separate place, and not in the Comelec transparency servers.
Comelec chair Sixto Brillantes says the reason why transmissions slowed was because of the tiered or ladderized system, wherein data from the precincts will go to the municipality, and the municipality will go to the provincial, and then to region and Comelec. Since we are talking about 78,000 precincts, the possibility of a "jam" exists.
Fact is, manipulation of these results can happen, according to IT experts from AMA and STI schools, from intervention, signals coming from another source, replacing those from legitimate sources. Meaning, the "cheating" happens not in the precincts or optical scanners---it happens during transmission. You don't need jammers to rig an election. You only need to redirect transmission to another server and fed the legitimate servers with information you desire. Intervention may be made in a few hundreds in clustered precincts. Translate those manipulations to
This explains why most transmissions happen in the dead of the night, where vigilance is at its lowest.
NOw, so that explains why Comelec right now is in a rush to proclaim because people are slowly learning the process of this elections. This also shows that there is a small group of people manipulating these results, for the sake of the people? Nah.
What do we really want? A faster yet unreliable count? Or a truthful yet slower count?
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Nancy Binay and Pure Democracy
Nancy Binay, daughter of the Vice President, reportedly won in this year's Senatorial elections. Binay, whom everyone thinks just sprouted out of nowhere to run and win an election, is being bashed by many people here and there. I read some of these anti-Nancy Binay bashing and wondered why are they bashing her?
Is it because she looks very ordinary unlike, say, Pia Cayetano and Loren Legarda? Is it because she's not as "white" as, say Miriam Defensor-Santiago or again, Pia Cayetano? Is it because the Binays are not the Madrigals, the Roxases, the Cayetanos, the Zobel de Ayalas, the Cojuangcos and the Aquinos, prized surnames linked with wealth and fame?
We always say, we want democracy. We always say that we want to see an ordinary person elected as a Senator. Now that we truly have someone, a veritable neophyte, elected, we shout foul?
What is the difference of say, Atty Llasos, a candidate of the Kapatiran party or even of Mayor Hagedorn with Nancy? Both are not national leaders. Both are not "qualified" with a Bachelors of Law degree or even a Masteral degree to boot, yet, so much flak has been received by Nancy than, say Llasos or some new candidate of the Kapatiran party.
Democracy, my dear, operates this way. Democracy allows such people as Nancy to become Senators. If people like you, then, chances are high that you'll be elected into office. If people does not love you, then, you're basically out. The only thing that probably justifies a bash is when the very mechanism, the very system that elected you, is filled with fraud or fraudulent, as they say.
Anyway, why bash Nancy when it is not her fault anyway. Nancy had a dream, according to her, that she just saw herself debating with such "heavyweights" as Miriam Defensor-Santiago.
Why are we bashing Binay? Is it because she is just an OJT, a jobless woman, now, a Senator. She actually surpassed probably, even the valedictorian or summa cum laude of her class in college now that she's an "Honorable".
Binay, like every single one of us, has a protected right to dream big. She dreamt that she will be elected into office, and so it was. Why fault her for dreaming this big and realising it afterwards?
Does the Constitution require a Senatoriable to become a barangay official or town official first before becoming a Senator? Does the Charter require an intelligence quotient of 160 before one becomes a senator? Do we require those who want to become a senator to take a law degree first?
Or, we are just angry and jealous that we were not born as a Binay? We are probably just jealous that we don't have a vice president for a father?
I even saw a photo of Nancy Binay dressed in a workmaid's suit serving a tray of wine to two ladies with their noses held up high. This is disgusting and shows one the full extent of our collective racist upbringing.
Why do we expect only "intelligent people" to become Senators? Fact is, let us truly examine the Senate. Did we really elect the best and the brightest as our Senators?
Yeah, I think in the past, we did.
We must however, congratulate ourselves for one reason---we have created a true democracy where, even, the not-so-bright, or the crude, or the potatoes or the D-listers can become Senators. That is, to my book, pure democracy.
Fact is, Nancy Binay's election just shows you how easy it is to become one of the top legislators of this country---train under a consummate politician. (or have a friend from Smartmatic).
What then prevents us from electing a veritable neophyte as our President come 2016? Nothing! Every single one may dream now that the likes of Nancy is being elected into office.
Is it because she looks very ordinary unlike, say, Pia Cayetano and Loren Legarda? Is it because she's not as "white" as, say Miriam Defensor-Santiago or again, Pia Cayetano? Is it because the Binays are not the Madrigals, the Roxases, the Cayetanos, the Zobel de Ayalas, the Cojuangcos and the Aquinos, prized surnames linked with wealth and fame?
We always say, we want democracy. We always say that we want to see an ordinary person elected as a Senator. Now that we truly have someone, a veritable neophyte, elected, we shout foul?
What is the difference of say, Atty Llasos, a candidate of the Kapatiran party or even of Mayor Hagedorn with Nancy? Both are not national leaders. Both are not "qualified" with a Bachelors of Law degree or even a Masteral degree to boot, yet, so much flak has been received by Nancy than, say Llasos or some new candidate of the Kapatiran party.
Democracy, my dear, operates this way. Democracy allows such people as Nancy to become Senators. If people like you, then, chances are high that you'll be elected into office. If people does not love you, then, you're basically out. The only thing that probably justifies a bash is when the very mechanism, the very system that elected you, is filled with fraud or fraudulent, as they say.
Anyway, why bash Nancy when it is not her fault anyway. Nancy had a dream, according to her, that she just saw herself debating with such "heavyweights" as Miriam Defensor-Santiago.
Why are we bashing Binay? Is it because she is just an OJT, a jobless woman, now, a Senator. She actually surpassed probably, even the valedictorian or summa cum laude of her class in college now that she's an "Honorable".
Binay, like every single one of us, has a protected right to dream big. She dreamt that she will be elected into office, and so it was. Why fault her for dreaming this big and realising it afterwards?
Does the Constitution require a Senatoriable to become a barangay official or town official first before becoming a Senator? Does the Charter require an intelligence quotient of 160 before one becomes a senator? Do we require those who want to become a senator to take a law degree first?
Or, we are just angry and jealous that we were not born as a Binay? We are probably just jealous that we don't have a vice president for a father?
I even saw a photo of Nancy Binay dressed in a workmaid's suit serving a tray of wine to two ladies with their noses held up high. This is disgusting and shows one the full extent of our collective racist upbringing.
Why do we expect only "intelligent people" to become Senators? Fact is, let us truly examine the Senate. Did we really elect the best and the brightest as our Senators?
Yeah, I think in the past, we did.
We must however, congratulate ourselves for one reason---we have created a true democracy where, even, the not-so-bright, or the crude, or the potatoes or the D-listers can become Senators. That is, to my book, pure democracy.
Fact is, Nancy Binay's election just shows you how easy it is to become one of the top legislators of this country---train under a consummate politician. (or have a friend from Smartmatic).
What then prevents us from electing a veritable neophyte as our President come 2016? Nothing! Every single one may dream now that the likes of Nancy is being elected into office.
Conspiracy to rig 2013 elections? Who lost and who really won?
How come that defective PCOS machines transmit "figures" to the central COMELEC server when they are in fact, not functioning? And since several thousands have malfunctioned and even CF cards have "erased data" or no data at all, how then did the Parish Pastoral Council of Responsible Voting or PPCRV and Namfrel get so many transmissions of data when even the Comelec failed to get some?
Where did the PPCRV, Namfrel and the Comelec got their preliminary results when, even the Comelec said that they have received only 69% of the total votes cast and there are still 10 million votes which are still not counted as we speak?
Even Comelec chair Sixto Brillantes in his presscon yesterday said they will only be reviewing a hundred or so ERs or only half of so many, to see a trend? Yet, this trend can only be relevant if it reflects not fifty percent of the total, but at least 80 or so percent when margins are totally insurmountable already.
The United Nationalist Alliance or UNA may not know it, but because they agreed on the preliminary results in the national elections of Senators, there is a presumption that they also agree on the results of the Congressional and the LGUs.
Really now, the UNA lost several valuable territories in the Visayas, as Team Pnoy lost some in half of Luzon.
For example, Cebu, which was traditionally a bailiwick of Arroyo, is now a formidable territory of the Liberal Party. The hold of the Garcias in this province has been shattered. This is a major factor come 2016 because of the sheer amount of votes in Cebu which could make or break someone's presidential campaign.
There are, however, several areas which I considered as critical areas where Liberal Party lost against UNA. Yet, please take a look as there is an emerging political force in the provinces which has made a considerable dent in this elections--the National Unity party. This party has successfully accomplished what Kapatiran and other so called "third force" failed in previous years.
It is quite presumptuous for UNA's chairman and president to say that 2016 is a goner already. Binay's vaulted local party machinery has been shattered this elections, what with monumental losses here and there. Obviously, this mid-term elections was used mainly to diminish the power of UNA's three kings: Binay, Enrile and Erap.
By the way, whoever thought of Poe's number one spot win, let me just congratulate. By placing a "safe bet"at the number one spot made it extremely uncomfortable for any party to consider the entire results of the elections.
How would one question the results of this elections when doing so will drag Poe too? Poe is perceived as a non-controversial candidate who is common to both UNA and Team Pnoy. Assuming that Poe's election is correct, do we presume that the rest of those in the Magic 12 really deserve to be there, even though: (1) there is a big part of the voters disfranchised and (2) there are irregularities now rearing its ugly head as the elections wind up?
Where did the PPCRV, Namfrel and the Comelec got their preliminary results when, even the Comelec said that they have received only 69% of the total votes cast and there are still 10 million votes which are still not counted as we speak?
Even Comelec chair Sixto Brillantes in his presscon yesterday said they will only be reviewing a hundred or so ERs or only half of so many, to see a trend? Yet, this trend can only be relevant if it reflects not fifty percent of the total, but at least 80 or so percent when margins are totally insurmountable already.
The United Nationalist Alliance or UNA may not know it, but because they agreed on the preliminary results in the national elections of Senators, there is a presumption that they also agree on the results of the Congressional and the LGUs.
Really now, the UNA lost several valuable territories in the Visayas, as Team Pnoy lost some in half of Luzon.
For example, Cebu, which was traditionally a bailiwick of Arroyo, is now a formidable territory of the Liberal Party. The hold of the Garcias in this province has been shattered. This is a major factor come 2016 because of the sheer amount of votes in Cebu which could make or break someone's presidential campaign.
There are, however, several areas which I considered as critical areas where Liberal Party lost against UNA. Yet, please take a look as there is an emerging political force in the provinces which has made a considerable dent in this elections--the National Unity party. This party has successfully accomplished what Kapatiran and other so called "third force" failed in previous years.
It is quite presumptuous for UNA's chairman and president to say that 2016 is a goner already. Binay's vaulted local party machinery has been shattered this elections, what with monumental losses here and there. Obviously, this mid-term elections was used mainly to diminish the power of UNA's three kings: Binay, Enrile and Erap.
By the way, whoever thought of Poe's number one spot win, let me just congratulate. By placing a "safe bet"at the number one spot made it extremely uncomfortable for any party to consider the entire results of the elections.
How would one question the results of this elections when doing so will drag Poe too? Poe is perceived as a non-controversial candidate who is common to both UNA and Team Pnoy. Assuming that Poe's election is correct, do we presume that the rest of those in the Magic 12 really deserve to be there, even though: (1) there is a big part of the voters disfranchised and (2) there are irregularities now rearing its ugly head as the elections wind up?
Election irregularities cropping up in 2013 Mid-Term Elections: Result manipulation rampant
So, the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) announced that this election is "fool proof" and "with minimal irregularities". That is not so, says an INternational Election monitoring group. Aside from vote buying, several irregularities were observed by the group.
However, let me say that, as the process gets delayed, the more irregularities are slowly emerging. How many actually were not able to vote because they decided not to or has been prevented from voting, or we call disfranchised?
Statistically now, the Commission on Elections has not given us any inkling as to how many millions of Filipinos were not able to vote or were disfranchised due to human or technical error. One COMELEC insider says the percentage of those disfranchised has breached the 70% voter turnout. Meaning, this is the only elections that figures do not tally, between the figure of those who actually cast their votes and those disfranchised.
This is relevant because look at the Senatorial race---it is very close. That margin between the twelfth spot and that of the fifteenth spot is just close to a million. If 2.7 million were disfranchised, this is relevant for those who want to jump to the Magic 12.
Likewise, how credible are these figures being transmitted from different places in the archipelago? Thousands of PCOS machines conked out. If they conked out, how then were they able to "transmit results"? If they were not used, where did all these machines get their figures?
Are results being manipulated to favor a respectable or acceptable outcome? Is that the reason why a neophyte was allowed or permitted to top the senatorial race to condition the minds of everyone to accept the outcome on the national level?
The thing is, local results are being affected by the figures released right now. If you tally, the figures do not add up! Meaning, there is a major manipulation being undertaken somewhere, and these results do not necessarily show the true mandate of the people!
The Comelec claims that these machines allowed us to see the voting results faster than usual, but the question is--are they accurate? What people are concerned about is the accuracy of these numbers, not how fast the voting and counting happened.
It seems that the electronic count and the manual count have the same length of time to be accomplished. If this is the case, then, surely, there is manipulation of the results happening as we speak.
I urged the PPCRV, the numerous audit firms and the Comelec to check their figures because it does not tally up with the data from the precincts.
I am not blaming the Comelec for this fiasco--I blame Smartmatic for selling us defective counting machines. We may never know the true will of the people from now on, simply because the very system that is being used right now to determine legitimacy of the elected is in serious question.
However, let me say that, as the process gets delayed, the more irregularities are slowly emerging. How many actually were not able to vote because they decided not to or has been prevented from voting, or we call disfranchised?
Statistically now, the Commission on Elections has not given us any inkling as to how many millions of Filipinos were not able to vote or were disfranchised due to human or technical error. One COMELEC insider says the percentage of those disfranchised has breached the 70% voter turnout. Meaning, this is the only elections that figures do not tally, between the figure of those who actually cast their votes and those disfranchised.
This is relevant because look at the Senatorial race---it is very close. That margin between the twelfth spot and that of the fifteenth spot is just close to a million. If 2.7 million were disfranchised, this is relevant for those who want to jump to the Magic 12.
Likewise, how credible are these figures being transmitted from different places in the archipelago? Thousands of PCOS machines conked out. If they conked out, how then were they able to "transmit results"? If they were not used, where did all these machines get their figures?
Are results being manipulated to favor a respectable or acceptable outcome? Is that the reason why a neophyte was allowed or permitted to top the senatorial race to condition the minds of everyone to accept the outcome on the national level?
The thing is, local results are being affected by the figures released right now. If you tally, the figures do not add up! Meaning, there is a major manipulation being undertaken somewhere, and these results do not necessarily show the true mandate of the people!
The Comelec claims that these machines allowed us to see the voting results faster than usual, but the question is--are they accurate? What people are concerned about is the accuracy of these numbers, not how fast the voting and counting happened.
It seems that the electronic count and the manual count have the same length of time to be accomplished. If this is the case, then, surely, there is manipulation of the results happening as we speak.
I urged the PPCRV, the numerous audit firms and the Comelec to check their figures because it does not tally up with the data from the precincts.
I am not blaming the Comelec for this fiasco--I blame Smartmatic for selling us defective counting machines. We may never know the true will of the people from now on, simply because the very system that is being used right now to determine legitimacy of the elected is in serious question.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Why do Filipinos elect political clans into office and charlatans to national posts?
Boo Chanco's Facebook update today seems to have come up with an interesting thread. He says that most people whom he talked to were disappointed by the choice of Senators. Middle class sentiments really, for Twitter and FB updates reflect that. But, are these rational outbursts?
I tend to agree with Boo's analysis that voters vote the way they do because they see these politicians as their lifeline with government. In rural areas, the only way people feel about government is thru the mayor and the councilors. These people help them in their times of great need. Senators and even the President do not.
So, voters tend to vote for those whom they see as "madaling lapitan", because that is how they see or define what a politician is---somebody whom you can approach and ask for help. This explains why most of those who won yesterday were either members of a political dynasty or someone old yet perceived to be rich, not just in experience but in "making miracles".
Boo Chanco is right when he says that people or voters themselves reinforce the patron-client relationship because they have no choice. Between a candidate who already "delivered" or who has a record of "service" and another who is young and is only a visionary,the masses would surely vote for the one who already has proven himself capable of delivering the goods so to speak.
This explains why, on our point of view, this behavior is irrational, because members of the middle class perceive democracy differently from what the masses think about democracy. In the middle class view, elections are ways of electing "rational" people in office. For the people, elections is one way of electing those who can help them ease their economic situation or their lives at least.
Now, why do we elect newbies and charlatans to national posts?
For many voters, national posts like Senators and Presidents are just for "entertainment". Since these people are very far from their lives--their acts do not impact on the day-to-day lives of the people---people elect them for their entertainment value.
Look at the very composition of the Senate and tell me how many really deserves their posts?
We elect the likes of Miriam Santiago not just she's erudite (according to her), but because we are entertained by her uncanny wit and demeanor. Her nature is a palengkera, no doubt about it. We associate her with our resident manay who regularly goes to the town sari-sari store to debate what's happening in our barangay.
We have action stars as senators and why were they elected? Because we want them to stir the brew so to speak with their silence and antics.
We have people like Trillanes and Honasan there because they represent our hidden desires to oust this Republic with a bimbang. We have a former top cop as senator because we always desired order.
We have lawyers as senators because we think that these people are only good talkers and they represent what we think should be the serious business of the Senate, which is legislation.
Now, we just elected a Nancy Binay as our senator and why is that? Nancy Binay represents what to us, a good opportunity to really deliver our message to these so-called "Honorables". O, see, we only think of this institution as a place for OJT's. Nothing serious about the Senate. You can elect whoever for as long as they entertain us.
Nancy Binay will be no different. Yes, she will provide the much needed entertainment we need, enough to convince us to perpetually hope that things will get better.
I tend to agree with Boo's analysis that voters vote the way they do because they see these politicians as their lifeline with government. In rural areas, the only way people feel about government is thru the mayor and the councilors. These people help them in their times of great need. Senators and even the President do not.
So, voters tend to vote for those whom they see as "madaling lapitan", because that is how they see or define what a politician is---somebody whom you can approach and ask for help. This explains why most of those who won yesterday were either members of a political dynasty or someone old yet perceived to be rich, not just in experience but in "making miracles".
Boo Chanco is right when he says that people or voters themselves reinforce the patron-client relationship because they have no choice. Between a candidate who already "delivered" or who has a record of "service" and another who is young and is only a visionary,the masses would surely vote for the one who already has proven himself capable of delivering the goods so to speak.
This explains why, on our point of view, this behavior is irrational, because members of the middle class perceive democracy differently from what the masses think about democracy. In the middle class view, elections are ways of electing "rational" people in office. For the people, elections is one way of electing those who can help them ease their economic situation or their lives at least.
Now, why do we elect newbies and charlatans to national posts?
For many voters, national posts like Senators and Presidents are just for "entertainment". Since these people are very far from their lives--their acts do not impact on the day-to-day lives of the people---people elect them for their entertainment value.
Look at the very composition of the Senate and tell me how many really deserves their posts?
We elect the likes of Miriam Santiago not just she's erudite (according to her), but because we are entertained by her uncanny wit and demeanor. Her nature is a palengkera, no doubt about it. We associate her with our resident manay who regularly goes to the town sari-sari store to debate what's happening in our barangay.
We have action stars as senators and why were they elected? Because we want them to stir the brew so to speak with their silence and antics.
We have people like Trillanes and Honasan there because they represent our hidden desires to oust this Republic with a bimbang. We have a former top cop as senator because we always desired order.
We have lawyers as senators because we think that these people are only good talkers and they represent what we think should be the serious business of the Senate, which is legislation.
Now, we just elected a Nancy Binay as our senator and why is that? Nancy Binay represents what to us, a good opportunity to really deliver our message to these so-called "Honorables". O, see, we only think of this institution as a place for OJT's. Nothing serious about the Senate. You can elect whoever for as long as they entertain us.
Nancy Binay will be no different. Yes, she will provide the much needed entertainment we need, enough to convince us to perpetually hope that things will get better.
What is the voter turnout in 2013 mid-term elections?
Are you not surprised that the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) until now has refused to divulge the voter turnout rate? Historically, at least 70-75% of the electorate cast their votes. In this elections, how many were able to vote? How many were disfranchised?
These stats are very important especially if you are a candidate for the national elections for two (2) reasons: one, if the turnout is less than seventy percent, you have a statistical chance of being in the winning circle. Those 45% of voters who weren't able to vote represent 24.75 million. Let's just say that you have a statistical chance of getting at least 10% of this figure, that is still 2.4million votes. Between the guy who manages to get the twelfth spot and you, that 2.4 million could give you more than enough to win or eclipse him (since the average margin between senatorial candidates is less than half a million).
Disfranchisement is one effective way of stealing someone's vote by preventing supporters of the candidate from voting. Disfranchisers even target specific barangays whose residents are asked to inhibit themselves from voting for fear of harm or reprisal. Nowadays, disfranchisement is covert. Operators ask voters identified from the other side to produce pieces of evidence so as to frustrate them from voting.
These stats are very important especially if you are a candidate for the national elections for two (2) reasons: one, if the turnout is less than seventy percent, you have a statistical chance of being in the winning circle. Those 45% of voters who weren't able to vote represent 24.75 million. Let's just say that you have a statistical chance of getting at least 10% of this figure, that is still 2.4million votes. Between the guy who manages to get the twelfth spot and you, that 2.4 million could give you more than enough to win or eclipse him (since the average margin between senatorial candidates is less than half a million).
Disfranchisement is one effective way of stealing someone's vote by preventing supporters of the candidate from voting. Disfranchisers even target specific barangays whose residents are asked to inhibit themselves from voting for fear of harm or reprisal. Nowadays, disfranchisement is covert. Operators ask voters identified from the other side to produce pieces of evidence so as to frustrate them from voting.
Learnings from the 2013 elections: Myth as election variable
1. The Philippine political system is slowly maturing. Yes, patron-client relationship still dominates reason of choice by voters but on the national level, perceptual based politics is slowly becoming a dominant factor in election choice.
An individual even a newbie has more than equal chance of being elected into office if that candidate possesses three (3) things: one, a mythology that surrounds him; two , clean and unassailable name and third, a believable promise.
The mythology factor is what makes people talk about the candidate. This is what makes him alive in the consciousness of people. It does not necessarily follow that a candidate who bears a known political brandname benefits from the "myth" that that name is being linked to. Every individual has his own unique mythology that makes him whole.
This mythology is what propelled Trillanes and Honasan's previous victories. Both candidates possess the myth of being "heroes". They fought the system, sacrificed their lives and in exchange (or utang na loob), people vote for them.
Honasan's furlough prior to the 2004 elections led to his eventual election. Trillanes got elected even while in prison.
Myth-making is very important now in politics.
Now, it helps if there is a huge mass support system that always keep this myth alive through constant exchange of views and communication.
2. Institutional support does not guarantee a victory.
There is one Senatorial candidate who happens to be a common name who was supported by several institutions but is now behind the twelfth senatorial candidate by a million votes.
The Villar brandname used to be no. 1 in terms of the Senatorial run, but right now, it is in no. 7 or even 8. It really goes to show that in terms of network, a candidate must definitely manage a huge network of supporters prior to the campaign.
3. Binay's hold with the LGU's is crumbling. Liberal party strangle-hold in the local and Congressional elections is tightening.
What people hate is when certain people get cocky. UNA already proclaimed Binay as the next president. Wow. Too presumptious.
Fact is, look at the local political configuration and you'll see that two formidable political networks are crumbling---Lakas-NUCD and Binay's political network.
Come 2016, Binay's local network would have diminished because most are in their term endings or have been defeated politically.
However, if LP fails to maintain its strong alliance with local organisations and parties, it is highly possible that come 2016, LP, LIKE UNA, will be as weak as LAKAS-NUCD.
4. Nancy Binay's election as Senator and Chiz Escudero being no. 3 despite controversies are proof that having a grassroots machinery is key towards election victory.
Nancy Binay or the Binay brandname can actually attract 11-13 million votes. This shows you how extensive Binay's local network is. His "sister-hood" concept is paying off. (When he was Mayor, VIce President Jejomar Binay went around the Philippines and entered into agreements with several vote rich yet poor towns and cities and made them sister cities or towns with Makati.
5. Wins of non-LP candidates in vote-rich provinces peripheral to Metro Manila could provide anti-LP presidential candidate a strong push come 2016.
6. Dynastic political families are reigning still in areas where there is a lack or limited political choice. In areas where there is no consistent and dominant name, election victory is secured through force of persuasion.
An individual even a newbie has more than equal chance of being elected into office if that candidate possesses three (3) things: one, a mythology that surrounds him; two , clean and unassailable name and third, a believable promise.
The mythology factor is what makes people talk about the candidate. This is what makes him alive in the consciousness of people. It does not necessarily follow that a candidate who bears a known political brandname benefits from the "myth" that that name is being linked to. Every individual has his own unique mythology that makes him whole.
This mythology is what propelled Trillanes and Honasan's previous victories. Both candidates possess the myth of being "heroes". They fought the system, sacrificed their lives and in exchange (or utang na loob), people vote for them.
Honasan's furlough prior to the 2004 elections led to his eventual election. Trillanes got elected even while in prison.
Myth-making is very important now in politics.
Now, it helps if there is a huge mass support system that always keep this myth alive through constant exchange of views and communication.
2. Institutional support does not guarantee a victory.
There is one Senatorial candidate who happens to be a common name who was supported by several institutions but is now behind the twelfth senatorial candidate by a million votes.
The Villar brandname used to be no. 1 in terms of the Senatorial run, but right now, it is in no. 7 or even 8. It really goes to show that in terms of network, a candidate must definitely manage a huge network of supporters prior to the campaign.
3. Binay's hold with the LGU's is crumbling. Liberal party strangle-hold in the local and Congressional elections is tightening.
What people hate is when certain people get cocky. UNA already proclaimed Binay as the next president. Wow. Too presumptious.
Fact is, look at the local political configuration and you'll see that two formidable political networks are crumbling---Lakas-NUCD and Binay's political network.
Come 2016, Binay's local network would have diminished because most are in their term endings or have been defeated politically.
However, if LP fails to maintain its strong alliance with local organisations and parties, it is highly possible that come 2016, LP, LIKE UNA, will be as weak as LAKAS-NUCD.
4. Nancy Binay's election as Senator and Chiz Escudero being no. 3 despite controversies are proof that having a grassroots machinery is key towards election victory.
Nancy Binay or the Binay brandname can actually attract 11-13 million votes. This shows you how extensive Binay's local network is. His "sister-hood" concept is paying off. (When he was Mayor, VIce President Jejomar Binay went around the Philippines and entered into agreements with several vote rich yet poor towns and cities and made them sister cities or towns with Makati.
5. Wins of non-LP candidates in vote-rich provinces peripheral to Metro Manila could provide anti-LP presidential candidate a strong push come 2016.
6. Dynastic political families are reigning still in areas where there is a lack or limited political choice. In areas where there is no consistent and dominant name, election victory is secured through force of persuasion.
What Grace Poe's victory means? It means Susan Roces is a far credible endorser than Binay, Enrile, Erap or Noy combined
Grace Poe, considered a political neophyte, is getting the no. 1 slot at the Senatorial polls. Analysts credit her win for just two (2) factors: one, recall and two, messaging. They forgot to include two more factors: third, the Pinoy's sense of justice or "payback", and huge machinery.
Unknown to many, Grace Poe Llamanzares is no stranger to politics. During the 2004 elections, Poe-Llamazares was at the midst of political organizing for her father, the late actor (and my dear "principal") Fernando Poe Jr. Fact is, at that time, her name was being bandied about as a potential Senatorial bet. Way back in 2004, Grace Poe-Llamanzares has surpassed many senatoriables in terms of political organizing. She is a safe name to support, no political baggage and no controversy whatsoever.
Her surname is clean, and the fact is, even if she did not use her late father in her campaign, the very mention of her name evokes memories of her father.
The "mythology" that surrounds her father and propelled him to win the 2004 elections is still there. The FPJ trademark still lives, albeit, repackaged as something of an "ideal". FPJ for many people means "bagong umaga". FPJ represents the hope of many that inspite of this elite-dominated system, there are still people whom they can rely on to at least make things better or easier for them.
FPJ for many people, represents their life---a person with a clean reputation and a longing for a brighter future denied by the elite of the opportunity to serve.
The same mythology applies to Chiz Escudero, who really benefitted from being the spokesperson of FPJ at that crucial juncture in history. People remember Escudero for being FPJ's veritable "side kick" who understands what the masses long for--a better future. Sadly though, Escudero is slowly being unmasked by people close to him. Institutions have abandoned him but he remains on top primarily because the FPJ trade mark still rubs to him.
That AD that shows Susan Roces endorsing him and released near the elections saved Chiz at the last minute.
As I said in my previous blogs, the only "ideal" that Pinoys really want is a better life. For as long as the Pinoy head of the family has his job or business, and that business is enough to make ends meet every single day and has something more to make some vacation or entertainment here and there, expect the Pinoy to be grateful.
How about a Grace Poe as President come 2016? Possible.
Unknown to many, Grace Poe Llamanzares is no stranger to politics. During the 2004 elections, Poe-Llamazares was at the midst of political organizing for her father, the late actor (and my dear "principal") Fernando Poe Jr. Fact is, at that time, her name was being bandied about as a potential Senatorial bet. Way back in 2004, Grace Poe-Llamanzares has surpassed many senatoriables in terms of political organizing. She is a safe name to support, no political baggage and no controversy whatsoever.
Her surname is clean, and the fact is, even if she did not use her late father in her campaign, the very mention of her name evokes memories of her father.
The "mythology" that surrounds her father and propelled him to win the 2004 elections is still there. The FPJ trademark still lives, albeit, repackaged as something of an "ideal". FPJ for many people means "bagong umaga". FPJ represents the hope of many that inspite of this elite-dominated system, there are still people whom they can rely on to at least make things better or easier for them.
FPJ for many people, represents their life---a person with a clean reputation and a longing for a brighter future denied by the elite of the opportunity to serve.
The same mythology applies to Chiz Escudero, who really benefitted from being the spokesperson of FPJ at that crucial juncture in history. People remember Escudero for being FPJ's veritable "side kick" who understands what the masses long for--a better future. Sadly though, Escudero is slowly being unmasked by people close to him. Institutions have abandoned him but he remains on top primarily because the FPJ trade mark still rubs to him.
That AD that shows Susan Roces endorsing him and released near the elections saved Chiz at the last minute.
As I said in my previous blogs, the only "ideal" that Pinoys really want is a better life. For as long as the Pinoy head of the family has his job or business, and that business is enough to make ends meet every single day and has something more to make some vacation or entertainment here and there, expect the Pinoy to be grateful.
How about a Grace Poe as President come 2016? Possible.
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